In a development likely to be welcomed by the tobacco industry in the current economic environment, an economics researcher at Washington State University has found that economic anxieties appear to play a significant factor in influencing cigarette smokers to continue or resume their habit.
The new study, conducted by Trenton G. Smith of Washington State University and Michael G. Barnes of Hartford Life, concludes that a “one percent increase in the probability of becoming unemployed causes a smoker to be 2.4 percent more likely to continue smoking.”
Smith says the research suggests a novel hypothesis about tobacco use namely, that a consumer’s decision to smoke may be, in part, a “self-medicating” response to economic insecurity.
If this “insecurity effect” on cigarette demand extends beyond the relatively small group of working-age smokers sampled in their study, the researchers suggest it could prove a critical factor in explaining the persistence of cigarette smoking within the broader population.
“The magnitudes of our estimates are not trivial,” Smith said of the research, published earlier this month in the B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy. “An increase of one standard deviation in the various measures of economic insecurity used in our study increases the probability of smoking at the end of our sample period by as much as 15 to 25 percent.”
Interestingly, the publication of the results of Smith and Barnes research follows closely on the heels of an unrelated report last month from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, which concluded that the percentage of U.S. adults who are cigarette smokers actually rose to 20.6% in 2008, following nearly a decade of declines in which it reached a low of 19.8% in 2007.
Should the relationship between economy uncertainty and smoking habits noted by Smith and Barnes be borne out by further research, the authors suggest tobacco preventative and rehabilitative programs might benefit from taking the influence of smokers’ economic anxieties into account.
“Such programs might benefit from a shift toward more ‘holistic’ approaches aimed at bolstering the economic situation of those at risk of nicotine addiction,” said Smith. “That might be accomplished through such things as providing them with improved access to health insurance or extending additional assistance to them in financial and career planning.”
Smith, who earned his masters and doctoral degrees in economics from the University of California, Santa Barbara, joined the faculty of WSU in 2004. He is the author of numerous journal articles and papers related primarily to the economics of obesity and nutrition, behavioral economics and neuroeconomics.
For additional information, contact Trenton Smith, assistant professor, WSU School of Economic Sciences, 509-335-2865, trentsmith@wsu.edu
