Looking Ahead to Tuesday’s Election

The polls’ ups and downs: These days, the spirits of many political candidates and their supporters can be traced to the ups and downs of the pre-election polls. While nearly every presidential poll points to a close election, they show different snapshots of the race as its stands now. What is the reason for the disparity? Are there really enough undecided voters moving back and forth to change the results? And how are the truly undecided voters likely to come down on Election Day? Travis Ridout, assistant professor of political science at WSU, studies the electoral process, how voters make up their minds and how polls measure those decisions. Ridout can be reached at 509.335.2264 or tnridout@wsu.edu.

Getting voters involved: As Election Day approaches, political interest is high, and many observers are speculating about the potential impact that an influx of new voters might have on the results. Mark Stephan, an assistant professor of public affairs at Washington State University Vancouver, studies citizen participation at the community level in the area of environmental policy. He also has interests in political behavior more broadly, including better understanding the factors that motivate people to get involved politically, whether it be voting in a presidential election or serving on an advisory board for a community group. Stephan can be reached at 360.546.9467 or stephanm@vancouver.wsu.edu.

Supreme Court and politics: The news that Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist is being treated for thyroid cancer has re-focused attention on the role that the next president will have in re-shaping the nation’s highest court. Cornell Clayton, a professor of political science at Washington State University, is the author of The Politics of Justice (1992) and co-editor of The Supreme Court in American Politics (1999). Clayton said that the three most likely retirees from the court in the next four years are Rehnquist, who usually votes with the court’s conservatives, Sandra Day O’Connor, the court’s most important swing vote, and John Paul Stevens, who usually votes with the court’s liberal wing. So, upcoming appointments could change the court’s direction in a wide range of high-profile issues. Clayton is available at 509.335.2427 or cwclayton@wsu.edu.

Budget challenges ahead: Tuesday’s election will determine the balance of power in both the U.S. Congress and the Washington State Legislature. But no matter which party controls power in Olympia or in Washington, D.C., lawmakers will face immediate budget challenges. The U.S. budget deficit for the last fiscal year was $412.5 billion; Washington lawmakers could be facing a $1 billion budget shortfall next year, and they – unlike their congressional colleagues – have a statutory obligation to produce a balanced budget. Lance LeLoup, Claudius O. and Mary W. Johnson Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Washington State University, has written extensively on the budget-making process on both the state and federal levels. LeLoup is available at 509.335.8929 or leloup@wsu.edu.