PULLMAN, Wash. — On the eve of “Super Tuesday,” the day when seven states hold Democratic presidential nomination events, faculty at Washington State University in Pullman will share insights and experience about the American political process and secrets about polls and projections.
The Feb. 2 forum, sponsored by the Foley Institute for Public Policy and Public Service, will be held from 3:10-5 p.m. in the Compton Union Building, Room 212. The session is free and open to the public. Panelists will allow time for questions from the audience.
The panel will feature three faculty members whose expertise spans public opinion surveys, primary campaigns and the likely impact of this presidential campaign on legislative and judicial politics in 2005 and beyond.
“The truth is, during the primaries, the average American knows precious little about any of the candidates,” said Travis Ridout, assistant professor of political science at WSU. “That’s in part the fault of the system.”
Ridout has done extensive research on primary campaigns. “The compression of the 2004 nomination calendar will have a tremendous impact on what voters know about the candidates and, in consequence, who is likely to win the Democratic nomination.”
Ashley Grosse, faculty researcher at the university’s Social and Economic Sciences Research Center, is an expert on public opinion surveys. She will talk about predicting the outcome of the nomination race through the use of polling data and the difficulties pollsters encounter in forecasting primary outcomes. This because of uncertainty about who will show up at the polls and the volatility of voter choice due to changing assessments of candidate viability. Grosse will also offer a qualified forecast about which candidate is likely to win the Democratic nomination based upon available polling data.
Mitch Pickerill, a WSU assistant professor of political science and an authority on law and politics, will offer insight into what the Democratic nomination race says more broadly about American politics and the Democratic Party. He will also provide attendees a likely scenario of the future of American politics based on the 2004 presidential campaign.
