WHO raises H141 Flu alert to level 6 pandemic

The World Health Organization on Thursday, June 11, raised the worldwide pandemic alert for influenza A (H1N1) virus to a Phase 6 level.

 

Phase 6 is a “moderate” alert and indicates that a global pandemic is underway. The move, WHO stated, is a reflection of the spread of the virus, not the severity of illness caused by the virus.

 

More than 70 countries now are reporting cases of H1N1 flu. This number has been increasing over the past few weeks, but many of the cases reportedly had links to travel or were localized outbreaks without community spread.

 

Inside Higher Ed.com carried an article on June 9 title “Summer Flu, Fall Headaches?,” noting that the continuing spread of the flu could mean challenges for universities and colleges in the fall.

 

“As college students begin leaving for summer vacation, the H1N1 virus, also known as swine flu, is cropping up on a surprising number of campuses across the nation,” the article stated. “Some national experts say this trend could be an ominous sign for students and health centers in the fall, when flu season traditionally intensifies.”

 

“I think ominous is perhaps too strong a word,” said Dr. Bruce Wright, director of WSU’s Health and Wellness Services. “Having said that, the H1N1 virus is not going away and will likely be present in the fall.

 

“One of the concerns is that this will be superimposed on the regular influenza season,” said Wright. “It’s also possible that the H1N1 virus can mutate into a more virulent strain as influenza viruses often do. It also could mutate to become less virulent.

 

“Our pandemic planning group is meeting again Monday (June 15) to discuss further preparation for students returning in the fall.”

 

Wright said, HWS has:

“We are following the possible development of H1N1 vaccine closely and will continue to coordinate closely with federal, state, and local public health entities around this and other issues,” Wright said.

 

To date, WSU Pullman has only seen one case of the H1N1 flu. Washington state has reported 584, and the United States 17,855 (nearly half the cases reported worldwide).

 

In a press release today, the U.S. Center for Disease Control, stated, “It’s uncertain at this time how serious or severe this novel H1N1 pandemic will be in terms of how many people infected will develop serious complications or die from novel H1N1 infection. Experience with this virus so far is limited and influenza is unpredictable.

 

“However, because novel H1N1 is a new virus, many people may have little or no immunity against it, and illness may be more severe and widespread as a result. In addition, currently there is no vaccine to protect against novel H1N1 virus.”

 

In the United States, most people who have become ill with the newly declared pandemic virus have recovered without requiring medical treatment, however, CDC anticipates that there will be more cases, more hospitalizations and more deaths associated with this pandemic in the coming days and weeks. In addition, this virus could cause significant illness with associated hospitalizations and deaths in the fall and winter during the U.S. influenza season.

 

“The virus is contagious, spreading easily from one person to another and from one country to another,” Dr. Margaret Chan, WHO director-general, said in yesterday’s announcement to the press.”

 

As of today, nearly 30,000 confirmed cases have been reported in 74 countries.

 

“This is only part of the picture,” said Chan. “With few exceptions, countries with large numbers of cases are those with good surveillance and testing procedures in place.

 

“Spread in several countries can no longer be traced to clearly-defined chains of human-to-human transmission. Further spread is considered inevitable.

 

“We are in the earliest days of the pandemic. The virus is spreading under a close and careful watch,” she said.

 

No previous pandemic has been detected so early or watched so closely, in real-time, right at the very beginning. This trend is the result of a five-year, worldwide effort in pandemic preparedness.

 

Present evidence shows the overwhelming majority of patients experience mild symptoms and make a rapid and full recovery, often in the absence of any form of medical treatment.

 

“We know that the novel H1N1 virus preferentially infects younger people,” Chan said. “In nearly all areas with large and sustained outbreaks, the majority of cases have occurred in people under the age of 25 years.”

 

Most cases of severe and fatal infections have been in adults between the ages of 30 and 50 years. This pattern is significantly different from that seen during epidemics of seasonal influenza, when most deaths occur in frail elderly people.

 

Cases Worldwide reported by WHO June 10, 2009

Country Cumulative total   Newly confirmed since the last reporting period     Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Argentina 343 0   87 0   Australia 1307 0   0   0   Austria 7 0   0   0   Bahamas 1 0   0   0   Bahrain 1 0   0   0   Barbados 3 0   0   0   Belgium 14 0   0   0   Bolivia 5 0   0   0   Brazil 52 0   12 0   Bulgaria 2 0   0   0   Canada 2978 4 532 0   Cayman Islands, UKOT 2 0   0   0   Chile 1694 2 0   0   China 188 0   14 0   Colombia 35 1 0   0   Costa Rica 104 1 0   0   Cuba 6 0   1 0   Cyprus 1 0   0   0   Czech Republic 4 0   0   0   Denmark 11 0   1 0   Dominica 1 0   0   0   Dominican Republic 91 1 0   0   Ecuador 67 0   0   0   Egypt 10 0   0   0   El Salvador 69 0   0   0   Estonia 4 0   0   0   Finland 4 0   0   0   France 73 0   0   0   Germany 95 0   0   0   Greece 7 0   0   0   Guatemala 74 1 14 1 Honduras 89 0   0   0   Hungary 4 0   0   0   Iceland 4 0   1 0   India 9 0   0   0   Ireland 12 0   0   0   Israel 68 0   0   0   Italy 56 0   2 0   Jamaica 11 0   1 0   Japan 549 0   31 0   Korea, Republic of 53 0   0   0   Kuwait 18 0   0   0   Lebanon 8 0   0   0   Luxembourg 1 0   0   0   Malaysia 5 0   0   0   Mexico 6241 108 0   0   Netherlands 35 0   5 0   New Zealand 27 0   4 0   Nicaragua 56 0   11 0   Norway 13 0   0   0   Panama 221 0   0   0   Paraguay 25 0   0   0   Peru 79 0   15 0   Philippines 77 0   0   0   Poland 7 0   0   0   Portugal 2 0   0   0   Romania 11 0   0   0   Russia 3 0   0   0   Saudi Arabia 1 0   0   0   Singapore 18 0   0   0   Slovakia 3 0   0   0   Spain 488 0   131 0   Sweden 19 0   0   0   Switzerland 20 0   0   0   Thailand 8 0   0   0   Trinidad and Tobago 4 0   2 0   Turkey 10 0   0   0   Ukraine 1 0   0   0   United Arab Emirates 1 0   0   0   United Kingdom 822 0   0   0   United States of America 13217 27 0   0   Uruguay 36 0   12 0   Venezuela 25 0   12 0   Viet Nam 23 0   7 0   Grand Total 29669 145 895 1

A WHO report states that pregnant women are at increased risk of complications. This heightened risk takes on added importance for a virus, like this one, that preferentially infects younger age groups.

 

“Perhaps of greatest concern, we do not know how this virus will behave under conditions typically found in the developing world,” Chan said. “To date, the vast majority of cases have been detected and investigated in comparatively well-off countries….

 

“Although the pandemic appears to have moderate severity in comparatively well-off countries, it is prudent to anticipate a bleaker picture as the virus spreads to areas with limited resources, poor health care, and a high prevalence of underlying medical problems.”

 

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