CIA Leak Probe May Influence Supreme Court Nomination Strategy

The fate of two key White House aides in the CIA leak probe may well determine who President Bush selects to replace Harriet Miers as his nomination to the Supreme Court, according to Cornell Clayton, a professor in the WSU Department of Political Science.
 
Whether the president opts for a more politically divisive conservative nominee or one likely to have an appeal on both sides of the aisle may well hinge on the actions of Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald, said Clayton, who received his doctorate from Oxford University and has written extensively about American politics and the courts.
 
Should the special prosecutor indict both Vice President Dick Cheney’s chief of staff, I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby, and Bush’s top political adviser, Karl Rove, Clayton said the White House may well opt for a more conservative candidate.
 
“If both Libby and Rove are indicted, the White House strategy may be to nominate a divisive, outspoken conservative whose nomination will lead to a pitched battle in the Senate, such as Janice Brown or Edith Jones, in an effort to distract attention from the prosecution and investigation of the White House,” Clayton said.
 
“If, on the other hand, there are no indictments, or only Libby is indicted, then there will be more incentive for the president to seek a consensus candidate who, while strongly conservative, could be more easily confirmed, such as a Michael McConnell,” he said.
 
The decision to announce Miers’ withdrawal from consideration for the high court post one day prior to the expected announcement of indictments in the leak investigation also was a “clear political calculation,” Clayton said.
 
“It was already clear that she was not going to do well in hearings and her withdrawal was increasingly inevitable,” he said. “By making the announcement a day in advance of the special prosecutor’s indictments, Mier’s withdrawal effectively becomes a one-day story.”
 
Clayton has been a Senior Fulbright Scholar, a Mellon Scholar and a Truman Scholar and has held fellowships at the European Union Institute, the Salzburg Seminar Institute and the Miller Center for Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. His research focuses on American political institutions and judicial politics. He can be reached at 509.335.2427 or cwclayton@wsu.edu.